A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
