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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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